Source: Supply Chain Dive
Date: 19th December 2025

Frontloaded cargo and elevated stock levels point to modest import declines, despite continued trade uncertainty.

The largest U.S. gateway on the West Coast is expected to experience a moderate softening in cargo volumes in 2026, following an extended period of cargo frontloading. Port leadership indicated that while no sharp contraction is anticipated, overall import volumes are likely to decline by low single digits compared to 2025 as inventories remain elevated across retail and manufacturing sectors.

High stock levels are the result of months of advance purchasing designed to mitigate tariff risk and supply chain disruption. Although inventory levels are described as manageable, the post-holiday period will be a critical inflection point, as retailers assess replenishment needs while avoiding aggressive discounting that could erode margins. Consumer demand remains resilient, with national retail forecasts pointing to record holiday sales.

Import flows have already shown signs of cooling. November throughput declined year on year, with imports, exports, and empty container movements all recording decreases. Despite this, year-to-date volumes remain marginally higher than the previous year, keeping total annual throughput on track to exceed 10 million TEUs, one of the port’s strongest performances on record.

Purchase order activity remains relatively stable, particularly for Asia-origin cargo booked several months in advance. However, recent disruptions, including gaps in federal trade data and evolving tariff policies, have slowed some decision-making ahead of seasonal factory shutdowns. Export volumes continue to face pressure from retaliatory trade measures affecting the agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

Looking ahead, uncertainty remains a defining feature of the trade environment. Ongoing legal challenges surrounding tariff authority and shifting policy frameworks continue to influence supply chain planning. While proposed trade frameworks may offer some near-term clarity, structural volatility is expected to persist into 2026.

Shippers are likely to face a more balanced but competitive environment, with slightly reduced import volumes easing congestion but placing pressure on carriers and terminals to optimise capacity. Contract negotiations may increasingly focus on flexibility rather than peak-season protection.

Importers may benefit from improved operational fluidity and less port congestion as inventories normalise. However, cautious replenishment strategies and lingering tariff uncertainty will require tighter demand forecasting and inventory optimisation to avoid excess stock or missed sales opportunities.

Exporters continue to face headwinds, particularly in sectors exposed to retaliatory tariffs and trade policy shifts. Lower outbound volumes may persist, making market diversification, alternative routing, and proactive trade compliance strategies increasingly important to maintain competitiveness.