Source: Retail Dive
Date: 5th January 2026

Return volumes are expected to rise sharply in early January, reshaping reverse logistics demand after a strong online shopping season.

Early indicators from the recent holiday season suggest that product returns initially remained lower than expected. Return volumes declined slightly year on year through most of November and early December, even during peak shopping periods. This trend reflected strong consumer intent and stable purchasing behaviour during the core holiday window.

However, this calm is expected to be short-lived. As the post-Christmas period begins, return activity is projected to spike sharply, with volumes forecast to increase by as much as 25–35% in the final days of December compared with earlier weeks. Elevated return levels are expected to persist into the first two weeks of January, remaining 8–15% above seasonal norms.

Consumer behaviour data shows a growing split between purchasing and returns channels. While mobile devices continue to dominate online shopping activity, returns are more frequently initiated via desktop platforms. This shift highlights the increasing complexity of digital customer journeys and the operational burden placed on retailers’ reverse logistics processes.

Despite the expected rise in returns, overall holiday spending remained robust, driven largely by home appliances, household goods and seasonal décor. These product categories, often bulky or high-value, tend to generate more complex return flows, increasing pressure on warehousing, transport capacity and inventory handling during the post-holiday period.

Returns remain a major cost centre for retailers and their supply chain partners. With returns representing a significant share of annual retail sales, how efficiently reverse logistics are managed will continue to influence profitability, customer loyalty and fulfilment strategies well into the new year.

Shippers will see increased demand for reverse logistics services, including domestic transport, returns consolidation, re-warehousing and redistribution. Peak return volumes may strain last-mile and regional transport capacity in early January.

Importers will see higher return rates, which may lead to inventory imbalances, increased storage requirements and higher handling costs. Importers will need agile inventory planning to manage resale, refurbishment or liquidation pathways efficiently.

Exporters have limited direct impact, but indirect effects may occur if returned goods are redirected for secondary markets or cross-border redistribution. Exporters involved in circular supply chains or recommerce models may see new opportunities emerge.