Source: Supply Chain Dive
Date: 14th January 2026

Spot market reliance grows as demand uncertainty and softer rates reshape airfreight strategies.

As 2025 drew to a close, air cargo shippers increasingly favoured short-term purchasing strategies, signalling a shift away from long-term contractual commitments. Industry data indicates that nearly half of global forwarder volumes in the fourth quarter were secured via the spot market, while one-year contracts represented just under a quarter of new agreements. This reflects a cautious stance by shippers, who are unwilling to lock in rates amid peak season volatility and uncertain market signals.

Spot airfreight rates continued to trend downward toward the end of the year, with global averages declining year-over-year despite a moderation in the pace of erosion. Increased capacity on key Asia–North America lanes contributed to lower pricing, even as overall air cargo volumes recorded modest growth. The market demonstrated resilience in 2025, holding relatively steady despite ongoing trade policy shifts, regulatory changes affecting e-commerce, and volatility in ocean freight.

The preference for shorter commitments highlights a broader change in contracting behaviour. While airlines and forwarders have remained active in the spot market since the pandemic, shippers further reduced their appetite for longer-term agreements in late 2025, betting on continued price softness. Although one-year contracts still accounted for a higher share than the previous year, the decline quarter on quarter suggests growing confidence among buyers that rates may ease further in early 2026.

Looking ahead, industry forecasts point to more subdued growth in air cargo volumes in 2026, driven by slower expansion in cross-border e-commerce and softer consumer demand. At the same time, ongoing investment in high-value sectors such as artificial intelligence and advanced technology continues to support certain air cargo flows. However, expectations of supply outpacing demand are likely to strengthen shippers’ negotiating positions, particularly outside high-growth intra-regional markets.

Overall, flexibility is emerging as the dominant strategy. With geopolitical risk, trade uncertainty and shifting demand patterns still in play, market participants are prioritising short-term agility over long-term rate protection as they enter the next contract cycle.

Shippers are likely to benefit from increased leverage in rate negotiations, particularly if capacity continues to exceed demand in 2026. A short-term contracting approach allows greater responsiveness to market movements but also requires closer monitoring of volatility during unexpected demand spikes.

Importers relying on air freight for time-sensitive or high-value goods may see opportunities to secure more competitive pricing in the near term. However, reduced long-term commitments could expose them to capacity risks if sudden disruptions tighten the market.

Exporters, especially in technology-driven sectors, may continue to rely on air freight despite softer market conditions. While rates may ease, exporters will need to balance cost savings against service reliability, particularly as e-commerce growth slows and trade policies become more restrictive.