Source: The Loadstar
Date: 7th January 2026

Lower demand expectations, evolving contracting behaviour and improving ocean freight reliability are reshaping air cargo negotiations for 2026.

Airfreight market conditions entering 2026 are shifting in favour of cargo owners, as demand growth slows and capacity continues to expand. Market analysts indicate that global air cargo volumes are expected to grow only modestly in the coming year, creating downward pressure on rates across several major trade lanes. This softer outlook is influencing Block Space Agreement (BSA) negotiations, with shippers increasingly cautious about committing to long-term contracts.

Contracting behaviour throughout 2025 leaned heavily toward short-term arrangements, with spot and near-spot purchasing dominating forwarder volumes. As the year closed, shippers further reduced their appetite for one-year agreements, preferring flexibility amid uncertainty around trade policies, geopolitical risks and economic conditions. This shift reflects a broader strategy to avoid locking in peak-season pricing ahead of a potentially weaker demand environment.

Despite the cooling outlook on many lanes, demand remains resilient for certain cargo types, particularly high-tech, artificial intelligence-related equipment and e-commerce goods moving from Asia-Pacific into North America and Europe. Carriers serving intra-Asia routes continue to show confidence, with expectations that BSA rates in these markets will rise, driven by strong regional trade flows and constrained capacity on select corridors.

At the same time, improving ocean freight reliability and falling sea freight rates are prompting renewed discussion around modal shift. Logistics providers note that some cargo traditionally transported by air, including high-value technology products, could increasingly move by sea if supply chains are planned further in advance. Excess capacity in container shipping and easing disruption risks are reinforcing this trend.

As BSA renewals progress, the balance between securing capacity protection and maintaining flexibility remains unresolved. Industry sentiment suggests that, in 2026, shippers may prioritise adaptability over long-term rate certainty, leveraging softer airfreight conditions while keeping alternative transport modes firmly in scope.

Shippers are likely to gain stronger negotiating leverage in 2026, particularly on long-haul airfreight lanes outside intra-Asia. Lower demand growth and competitive capacity could enable more favourable rates, while flexible contracting strategies allow shippers to respond quickly to market changes and explore modal shifts where feasible.

Importers may benefit from reduced airfreight cost pressure, especially for non-urgent cargo. Improved ocean freight reliability offers opportunities to rebalance transport strategies, potentially lowering landed costs. However, careful planning will be required to manage lead times and inventory levels if shifting away from air.

Exporters face a more complex environment, with strong air demand persisting in select regional markets but softening elsewhere. Those exporting time-sensitive or technology-driven goods may still rely on airfreight, while others can optimise margins by transitioning suitable volumes to sea freight. Contract flexibility will be critical to managing volatility and protecting service levels.