Source: AirCargoNews
Date: 2nd September 2025

Global demand softens, but Southeast Asia is expected to drive transpacific growth in the coming months.

Airfreight rates in August continued to mirror the seasonal summer slowdown, with figures from the Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index showing only slight movements on major routes.

Rates from Hong Kong to North America rose modestly to $5.29 per kg compared with $5.11 in July, while Hong Kong to Europe declined to $4.26 per kg from $4.39 the previous month.

Despite these shifts, both routes remained lower than last year, reflecting a broader decline in demand and the impact of reduced jet fuel costs.

The index indicated that global airfreight rates were largely flat in August, consistent with the quieter summer season. While demand remained steady in certain sectors such as garments, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and semiconductors, overall trade activity did not pick up meaningfully.

Capacity constraints in some markets led to delays, but the overall picture pointed to subdued activity until the start of the busier export season.

Looking ahead, the traditional peak season beginning in September is expected to see a notable shift in trade dynamics.

It is anticipated that stronger growth in transpacific volumes from Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, into the United States, will surpass flows from China due to tariff pressures.

Airlines are preparing additional capacity on Transpacific Eastbound routes to accommodate demand driven by AI servers, consumer electronics, and other technology products.

Although total U.S. imports may fall by 5% this year, air freight could outperform as companies front-load shipments to mitigate the risk of tariff increases.