Source: The Loadstar
Date: 26th September 2025

Golden Week factory closures, severe weather, and rail constraints combine to tighten capacity and push rates higher.

Airfreight rates from China to Europe have jumped sharply, rising between 30% and 50% in just two weeks. Ahead of the Golden Week holiday, with factories closing, demand has spiked, compounded by the disruption caused by a major typhoon and reduced rail connections to Europe.

These factors have squeezed available capacity, with significant price increases reported on key lanes into major European hubs.

Despite the current spike, industry observers suggest that the rate surge may be temporary.

Global freighter capacity dropped notably in the wake of the typhoon, particularly on transpacific and Middle Eastern routes.

However, capacity is slowly recovering, and it is anticipated that only a short, moderate peak season lasting from mid-October to late November for the U.S. and from November through early December for Europe.

Beyond seasonal peaks, structural shifts are reshaping trade flows. Cross-border e-commerce from Asia to Europe is accelerating, drawing freighter capacity away from traditional hubs and boosting volumes in Eastern European gateways. +

Added to this are strong demand drivers such as new technology launches and AI hardware shipments. Overall, China-to-EU exports are rising, even as some other Asian origins see weaker performance.

Meanwhile, carriers continue to adjust fleets and schedules to meet demand, while customers are encouraged to optimise transport strategies to balance cost and capacity.

For shippers, the volatility highlights the need for flexible planning and proactive booking strategies.

Rising rates, constrained space, and shifting trade flows mean higher costs and potential delays if capacity is not secured in advance.

Many are being forced to consider alternative gateways, diversify transport modes, and build stronger partnerships with logistics providers to maintain supply chain resilience in the face of unpredictable disruptions.