Source: CNBC
Date: 12th September 2025

Reports show shoppers starting earlier amid price concerns, with e-commerce expected to drive growth.

The holiday shopping season is starting earlier than usual this year as consumers brace for higher prices linked to lingering inflation and ongoing tariff uncertainty.

Retail surveys indicate that many shoppers began purchasing as early as July to take advantage of sales events and secure goods before potential cost increases.

Seasonal items are already appearing in stores, reflecting both early demand and retailers’ efforts to capture cautious consumer spending.

According to retail forecasts, overall holiday sales are expected to reach between $1.61 trillion and $1.62 trillion, representing a modest 3% year-over-year increase, slower than the previous year’s 4.2% growth.

E-commerce, however, is projected to remain a bright spot, with online sales expected to rise between 7% and 9%.

Despite this resilience, consumer surveys show concern: 41% expect gifts to be more expensive, while 30% anticipate spending less than last year.

Average planned spending on gifts, travel, and entertainment is reported at $1,552, a 5% decline from the prior year.

Tariffs are another factor influencing buying patterns, but their immediate impact may be limited. Many retailers placed orders earlier in the year, securing merchandise at pre-tariff prices and stocking up in advance of the holiday rush.

While some goods remain stable in cost, such as pre-lit Christmas trees holding last year’s price levels, experts caution that retailers are currently absorbing more of the impact than consumers.

Discounting strategies are expected to play a key role throughout the season, with the best deals likely to appear from early October through Christmas as retailers seek to win over price-sensitive shoppers.