Source: CDLLife
Date: 5th November 2025

Freight carriers along the California–Mexico border brace for one of their weakest shipping seasons in years as trade tensions dampen cross-border demand.

Trucking companies operating along the California–Mexico border are projecting a 40% decline in U.S.-bound loads by the end of 2025, marking a sharp downturn in cross-border freight activity. Traditionally, October and November bring a surge in exports from Mexico to the United States ahead of the holiday season, but this year’s figures reveal a notable drop compared to previous years. The slowdown underscores ongoing challenges tied to trade policy uncertainty and weakened investment sentiment across the region.

Recent trade statistics show that U.S.-bound shipments from Mexico have dropped from $4.4 billion in May 2024 to $3.5 billion in May 2025, a year-on-year decrease that highlights how prolonged tariff disputes and shifting economic conditions have affected logistics flows. Industry groups along the border have described 2025 as one of the most difficult operational years in recent memory, with lower freight volumes putting pressure on carriers’ profitability and workforce utilisation.

Industry observers point to uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade and tariff policy as a key factor behind the slump. The inconsistent tariff environment has disrupted manufacturing and supply chain planning, discouraging investment and slowing cargo movement through key border crossings. These conditions have also eroded confidence among importers and exporters, who are adjusting their sourcing strategies to mitigate risk.

Despite the downturn, regional freight associations remain cautiously optimistic about a rebound in 2026. Many expect that stabilised trade frameworks, improved tariff clarity, and potential policy adjustments could help restore cross-border flows and reinvigorate investment along the logistics corridor.

For now, however, trucking companies on both sides of the California–Mexico border are navigating a fragile trade environment, one that demands tighter cost control, diversified routing strategies, and greater coordination among shippers, customs brokers, and logistics providers to sustain cross-border operations through the end of the year.