Source: Supply Chain Dive
Date: 17th February 2026 

Stronger January Volumes, Softer Pricing Signals Across Key Trade Lanes.

Global air cargo demand rose sharply in January, largely influenced by an earlier Lunar New Year, according to a report by Xeneta. While volumes increased year-on-year, spot rates edged slightly lower, suggesting that the spike may be calendar-driven rather than a reflection of sustained underlying demand.

Global air cargo volumes increased by 7% year-on-year in January, the strongest January growth since 2025. However, the average global spot rate declined by 1% to USD 2.56 per kilogram. The global dynamic load factor rose to 57%, indicating marginally tighter capacity conditions.

The report notes that January data is heavily influenced by Lunar New Year timing. In 2025, celebrations began on 28 January, whereas in 2026 they started on 15 February. This shift likely pulled forward shipments into January, artificially strengthening demand figures.

Across major trade lanes, spot rates showed softness. Rates from Northeast Asia to the U.S. fell 3% year-on-year and 17% month-on-month. Southeast Asia to North America saw a steeper 12% year-on-year decline, with a 16% drop month-on-month. The decline was partially linked to adjustments in freighter capacity and weaker e-commerce flows.

E-commerce exports from China to the U.S. continue to contract amid the full implementation of the U.S. de minimis ban. E-commerce volumes, typically contributing 20–25% of global air cargo, dropped more than 50% year-on-year in December for the third consecutive month. Overall, 2025 e-commerce exports from China to the U.S. fell by 28%, as Chinese platforms increasingly pivoted toward European markets.

Looking ahead, uncertainty remains for Q1. A potential return of ocean shipping through the Red Sea and Suez Canal may influence modal shifts in Q2. Some major carriers, including Maersk and CMA CGM, have tested or reconsidered Red Sea routes. However, the report suggests a rapid shift from air back to ocean freight remains unlikely in Q1 2026 due to ongoing route instability.

• Short-Term Volume Surge, But Not Structural Demand Growth: The January increase appears seasonal rather than structural. Shippers should avoid over-interpreting this spike as a sustained recovery. Planning should remain cautious for Q1.
• Softer Air Freight Rates = Negotiation Opportunity: With spot rates declining across key lanes, importers and exporters may benefit from short-term rate optimisation opportunities, particularly on Asia–North America corridors.
• E-Commerce Supply Chain Realignment: Companies dependent on China–U.S. e-commerce flows may face reduced air capacity demand and shifting trade patterns. European trade lanes could see increased competition and tightening capacity.
• Ocean Freight Uncertainty May Support Air Demand: If Red Sea instability continues, air freight could retain strategic value for time-sensitive cargo. However, a stable return to Suez routing later in the year could soften air cargo demand in Q2.
• Strategic Recommendation: Shippers should maintain modal flexibility. A hybrid air–ocean strategy may be prudent while geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties remain fluid.