Source: JOC
Date: 16th April 2025

The European Commission is closely monitoring containerized imports from China amid growing fears that the high US tariffs will force a redirection of trans-Pacific trade flows and flood Europe with Chinese goods.

While there is no evidence yet of increasing volume from China above seasonal norms, the commission is taking no chances and has deployed an “Import Surveillance Task Force” to track any irregular changes in trade.

“The commission is monitoring imports closely to ensure that it detects in good time any potential increase in imports due to trade diversion,” a spokesperson for trade at the European Commission told the Journal of Commerce.

The U.S.’s 145% tariffs on Chinese imports took effect April 9, leading to significant frontloading ahead of that date and a large-scale cancellation of cargo bookings thereafter. Some shippers are requesting that containers already ingated at Chinese origins not be loaded on ships. In contrast, others have asked that containers be pulled completely from the port, according to a trans-Pacific carrier executive.

Ships leaving China for the U.S. in the coming weeks are expected to be half-full as the cancellations continue, with significant blank sailings likely on the trans-Pacific and carriers seeking out other markets to utilize their capacity. Southeast Asian origins, for instance, are seeing a surge in ship utilization as shippers frontload exports from those nations to the U.S. to take advantage of a 90-day reprieve on reciprocal tariffs.

With the door to US trade effectively slammed shut, Chinese manufacturers are urgently looking for alternative markets in which to offload their surplus inventory. Europe’s huge consumer base is an attractive target, and the European Commission is shoring up its defenses against any incoming wave of cheap Chinese products that could displace European-made goods.

European Commission said if the new monitoring mechanism detected an increase in Chinese imports that could harm European Union industry, the EU “will be ready to respond appropriately.”

“In such a case, the commission could deploy its trade defense instruments, including a safeguard investigation that could be initiated in case an import surge causes, or threatens to cause, serious injury to EU industry,” the spokesman added.

Such is the concern in Europe that the European Commission President called the Chinese Premier last week to urge Beijing to address possible trade diversions due to US tariffs.

Record capacity deployed on the Asia-Europe trade
The concerns of the European Commission might be valid. According to Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis, carriers have announced an all-time high in capacity sailing out of Asia toward North Europe this week at 411,600 TEUs, beating the record set in early March of 2021, with very limited capacity blanked.

“Surely not a coincidence, and even though some of it should have sailed last week, it’s not canceled but set to sail this week,” said the chief analyst for the rate benchmarking platform.

The average transit time from China to North Europe is 54 days, meaning the first shipments from any diverted trade will begin to arrive in early June.

A reliable source said strong bookings from Asia to Europe have been sustained through recent weeks, but that was aligned with the usual book of business.

There is indeed speculation within the market that, as US demand decreases due to the U.S. tariffs, China may seek alternative markets to offload its goods at competitive prices. However, it was too early to definitively identify that trend.

Currently, many Chinese factories have likely manufactured products based on existing orders from US importers. These finished goods or in-progress orders may not be easily cancellable, and some are already awaiting shipment to the US. As such, we have not yet seen a significant increase in Chinese containers destined for European ports.

One thing we can say is that all signs point towards China and others having to play more in other markets, so Asia to Europe will surely receive more focus,” a reliable source told the Journal of Commerce.

Carriers shifting capacity around to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs is bringing a familiar disruptive factor back into the mix — equipment imbalances.

If we do begin to see trade flow impacts from the tariffs, shipping lines will likely adjust their sailing schedules, potentially omitting some or all Chinese ports on certain voyages to accommodate increased demand from other regions.

This adjustment will lead to an equipment imbalance, as seen in previous disruptions like the Red Sea crisis and during the pandemic, where repositioning equipment to align with new trade flows takes time.

China’s surge would worsen persistent port congestion
Another potential issue is that any surge in Chinese imports will quickly exacerbate the severe port congestion that is still causing delays across the major North Europe and Mediterranean gateways. A host of factors are responsible for the bottlenecks, including full container yards at most terminals, crane maintenance in some ports, berth congestion, rail disruption from line closures in northern Germany and low water levels on the Rhine River impacting inland connections.

It is reported that berth waiting times of 18 days in London Gateway and 4.5 days at the Greek hub of Piraeus, where 12 feeder vessels are currently waiting to be handled.