Source: Supply Chain Dive
Date: 10th December 2025

Shippers maintain traditional shipping cycles as tariffs stabilise, but softening e-commerce activity and replenishment needs signal uncertainty for 2026.

Global air cargo volumes increased by 5% year over year in November, outperforming earlier expectations of a flat peak season, according to the latest market data. While demand strengthened, average spot rates continued to decline, falling 5% year over year to $2.73 per kilogram. Analysts note that the decline is less severe than previously forecast, indicating that carriers may be prioritising market share over rate discipline in an already soft pricing environment.

Shippers maintained their established seasonal shipment patterns, contributing to stronger-than-anticipated volumes. More clarity around U.S. tariff actions, with imposed duty levels remaining in the low double digits rather than the previously feared 30–100% range, also helped stabilise shipper sentiment. The impact of tariffs remains present, but not yet severe enough to suppress consumer demand or materially alter near-term capacity strategies.

However, the market remains fluid. Some shippers have absorbed tariff-related costs instead of passing them to downstream customers, but inventories are now tightening. As replenishment cycles begin in 2026, tariff exposure may become more pronounced. At the same time, e-commerce growth, particularly from China, the sector’s primary engine over the past two years, is showing clear signs of slowdown. Cross-border e-commerce volumes were flat in October, a stark contrast to over two years of nearly uninterrupted 40% growth rates.

Rate erosion was recorded across most major trade lanes. Southeast Asia–North America routes saw a 15% year-over-year price decline, reflecting a mix of added capacity and softer e-commerce-driven volumes due to new de minimis restrictions. Rates from Northeast Asia to North America fell 5% year over year but saw a month-over-month spike linked to Black Friday activity. The global dynamic load factor remained unchanged, signalling that the balance between supply and demand is holding steady for now.

Looking ahead, analysts expect the air cargo sector to experience modest single-digit demand growth in 2026, with supply likely to outpace demand. This imbalance may push rates lower and intensify forwarder competition for market share. Both carriers and shippers are increasingly seeking clearer insight into rate behaviour as they prepare for another year of complex market conditions.

Shippers stand to benefit from weakening airfreight rates as additional capacity enters the market while demand remains moderate. Traditional peak-season planning still holds for now, allowing shippers to maintain predictable scheduling. However, softening e-commerce volumes and potential tariff-driven replenishment surges may cause short-term volatility in 2026. Shippers will need to monitor capacity shifts closely as carriers compete aggressively for volume.

U.S. importers may face rising landed costs once inventory replenishment begins, particularly if tariffs take greater effect in 2026. While lower airfreight rates help offset some financial pressure, reduced inventory buffers and tightening working capital conditions could challenge planning cycles. Importers reliant on fast-moving e-commerce goods may experience additional uncertainty due to decelerating Chinese cross-border flows.

Exporters may find increased airfreight capacity advantageous, especially as rates trend downward. However, demand softness in key e-commerce markets could reduce uplift opportunities for certain product categories. Exporters targeting North American markets should be prepared for fluctuating rate conditions as airlines rebalance capacity and forwarders pursue aggressive pricing strategies to retain or expand market share.