Source: Splash247
Date: 12th November 2025

A declared halt in Houthi maritime strikes brings limited optimism as experts warn that carriers and insurers need far stronger assurances before returning to the Red Sea route.

Despite the Houthis announcing a pause in maritime attacks and lifting their self-declared blockade on Israeli ports, global shipping experts warn that it is far too early to expect a large-scale return to Red Sea and Suez Canal routings. The statement included a warning that if conflict in Gaza continues, operations may resume, reinforcing that the ceasefire is conditional rather than a firm commitment. This history of temporary pauses collapsing once regional tensions flare again is prompting the industry to remain wary.

Industry analysts highlight that a similar ceasefire earlier in the year quickly unraveled, with attacks resuming as hostilities escalated. As a result, carriers, insurers, and maritime security specialists emphasise that shipping cannot rely on unverified political declarations when crew safety, vessel security, and cargo integrity are at stake. While a few operators have cautiously resumed Bab el-Mandeb transits, the majority of global carriers continue to avoid the region until risks can be clearly assessed and controlled.

Some improvement has been observed, with certain companies restarting limited transits and others sailing with AIS signals active again. Maritime security firms note that for a small number of operators, the perceived risk has returned to tolerable levels. Still, the broader market remains cautious, especially with ongoing uncertainty over geopolitics, insurance coverage limitations, and the potential for attacks to resume without warning.

Meanwhile, the continued diversions around the Cape of Good Hope are reshaping trade flows. Estimates show significant increases in tonne-mile demand, led by containerships at +10.7%, which have supported freight rates and vessel utilisation. Analysts warn that a sudden, large-scale return to the Red Sea could reduce voyage distances, increase capacity, and put further downward pressure on rates. Spot rates on major east–west trades that typically transit the Red Sea are already down more than 50% since the start of the year, and forecasts suggest global freight rates may decline by an additional 25% in 2026 even without further changes in the Red Sea.

Satellite tracking data confirms that traffic through the region remains historically low. Gulf of Aden arrivals are down 47% compared with 2023, while Suez Canal transits are down 53%. Experts at multiple maritime intelligence groups believe that carriers will only restore regular operations once they can be confident that the route will remain safe and predictable over the long term, not just for the next few weeks.

For shippers, the continued reluctance to return to the Red Sea translates into longer voyages, higher bunker consumption, and elevated operating costs. Extended routing around the Cape disrupts schedules, complicates equipment repositioning, and introduces greater exposure to weather delays.

For importers, these prolonged detours sustain longer lead times and delay inventory replenishment. Retailers relying on fast-moving consumer goods face a higher risk of stockouts, while tariff volatility and extended transit times make demand planning more difficult. Despite recent rate declines, the structural costs of diversion and war risk insurance keep logistics costs above pre-crisis levels.

For exporters, equipment shortages and irregular sailing schedules remain persistent challenges. Containers take longer to return to origin markets, reducing availability for outbound shipments. Longer and less reliable transit times also make exported goods less competitive globally, especially in agricultural and manufacturing sectors sensitive to delivery cycles.

Across the supply chain, insurance premiums remain elevated. War risk surcharges and additional protection requirements add substantial cost layers that are passed through to shippers and consignees. Even if selected carriers attempt limited Red Sea transits, most insurers and global forwarders still view the corridor as unstable and will continue to restrict routing or impose premiums accordingly.

Overall, while the pause in attacks offers a symbolic opening, it does not meaningfully change operational realities for the industry. Carriers, shippers, importers, and exporters must continue planning for longer routes, fluctuating rates, and inconsistent risk levels until a verifiable and lasting improvement materialises in the Red Sea corridor.