Source: Supply Chain Dive
Date: 24th November 2025

Lack of federal trade data creates uncertainty for importers ahead of Lunar New Year, affecting order timing, port activity and cargo flow projections.

The extended U.S. government shutdown is creating significant challenges for importers who depend on federal trade data to plan purchases, inventory strategies and supply chain decisions. With key government reporting paused, companies lack the intelligence needed to forecast demand accurately, particularly during the crucial buying window leading up to the Lunar New Year holiday. According to the Port of Los Angeles, this data blackout is making it far more difficult for importers to assess market needs and place orders with confidence.

Retailers and manufacturers typically issue purchase orders to Asian factories in December to ensure production and shipment well before the Lunar New Year, when many factories close for a full week. This creates a tight schedule, especially given the short six-week period between year-end holidays and the February holiday shutdown. While current activity is trending normally, the port expects a rapid acceleration of cargo movement as businesses rush to move goods before factory closures begin.

Even with the anticipated pre-holiday surge, the Port of Los Angeles expects overall volumes for November and December to soften compared to last year, when shippers frontloaded imports ahead of potential tariffs. Still, 2025 remains a strong year overall for the port. October throughput reached more than 848,000 TEUs, slightly below the previous year’s level but above the port’s five-year average, indicating continued resilience despite uncertain conditions.

October import volumes aligned closely with historical patterns, totalling more than 429,000 TEUs as retailers moderated orders into year-end. Export activity also remained solid, surpassing the five-year running average by 7% with over 123,000 TEUs processed. Empty containers reached more than 295,000 TEUs, reflecting ongoing equipment repositioning and steady demand across outbound and inbound flows.

However, until the government fully restores reporting functions, the absence of reliable federal data will continue to complicate forecasting for importers, ports and carriers alike. In the meantime, companies must rely on private-sector analytics, historic trend lines and industry collaboration to guide short-term decision-making ahead of the Lunar New Year peak.

Shippers may experience reduced forecasting accuracy due to limited visibility into import behaviour, making equipment planning and capacity allocation more complex. The compressed pre–Lunar New Year period could also lead to short-term congestion, higher utilisation of vessel space and increased pressure on drayage and warehousing. Agile scheduling and more frequent adjustments may be necessary as importer order cycles fluctuate.

Importers face the most direct impact. Without updated federal trade data, companies have diminished clarity on demand trends, market conditions and inventory requirements. This creates a higher risk when placing purchase orders for Lunar New Year production slots, increasing the likelihood of delays or insufficient stock levels. Importers may adopt more conservative or staggered ordering strategies, potentially affecting availability and landed cost optimisation.

Exporters currently benefit from steady outbound flows, with export volumes performing above historical trends. A slowdown in imports may increase short-term availability of empty containers for export repositioning, although this depends on carrier strategies. Exporters should remain attentive to potential pre-holiday operational bottlenecks that could influence equipment access or cut-off times as ports experience compressed peak activity.