Source: SPGlobal; Reuters; Financial Times; Lufthansa
Date: 10th March 2026 

Tight aviation fuel supply and rising costs prompt airlines to introduce higher fuel surcharges.

Key Takeaways

• Jet fuel prices have risen sharply, increasing cost pressures across global air cargo operations.
• Airlines are adjusting fuel surcharges, with Lufthansa Cargo increasing its Airfreight Surcharge from €0.85 to €1.20 per kg, effective 16 March.
• Airspace restrictions and rerouted flights are increasing fuel consumption and reducing cargo payload capacity.
• Air freight capacity remains constrained, with cargo backlogs reported at key export hubs and rates increasingly quoted on a spot basis.
• Ocean freight services are also affected, with maritime security concerns around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb, vessel delays, and new
• Emergency War Surcharges (EWS) are being introduced.

Recent developments in global energy markets are beginning to affect the air cargo industry, as jet fuel prices experience significant volatility and upward pressure. Aviation fuel markets have tightened due to disruptions in supply flows and limited refining capacity, resulting in jet fuel prices rising faster than crude oil in recent weeks. These changes are creating cost pressures for airlines and cargo operators, which are gradually being reflected in freight pricing.

Jet fuel plays a critical role in aviation operations and represents one of the largest operating costs for airlines. Unlike crude oil, aviation fuel cannot easily be substituted and must be produced through specialised refining processes. Global refining capacity dedicated to jet fuel is relatively limited, which means production cannot quickly increase when supply disruptions occur. This structural constraint often leads to stronger price volatility in jet fuel markets compared with other energy products.

Another factor contributing to the current market conditions is the way aviation fuel is produced and distributed. Jet fuel is typically refined and delivered for near-term consumption rather than long-term storage. As a result, inventories remain relatively limited and supply buffers are small. When disruptions occur within major refining regions or along shipping routes, the market can quickly experience tightening supply and price spikes as buyers compete for available fuel.

Operational challenges affecting aviation routes can also contribute to higher fuel consumption. Airspace restrictions or routing adjustments may require airlines to operate longer flight paths between global hubs, increasing fuel demand at a time when supply conditions are already tight. This combination of supply constraints and operational adjustments has intensified cost pressures across both passenger and cargo aviation sectors.

A recent example of how airlines are responding to these developments can be seen in the actions taken by Lufthansa Cargo. The carrier announced an increase in its Airfreight Surcharge from €0.85 to €1.20 per kilogram of chargeable freight weight, effective 16 March. According to the airline, the adjustment reflects exceptional increases in jet fuel costs that can no longer be fully absorbed operationally. The surcharge is generally determined based on the Latest Acceptance Time (LAT) rather than the flight date, and may be revised again depending on future fuel price developments.

Fuel costs typically represent a substantial portion of airline operating expenses, often accounting for 20–30% of total costs. When jet fuel prices rise sharply, airlines frequently adjust fuel surcharges to maintain operational stability and ensure the continuity of their global networks.

Current Operational Situation: Air & Ocean Freight
Air Freight

• Some airlines, including Emirates and Etihad Airways, have resumed limited operations, although overall cargo capacity remains constrained. Qatar Airways services remain suspended in certain affected corridors.
• Airlines continue to avoid flying over conflict zones in West Asia, resulting in longer routings, higher fuel consumption, and reduced cargo payload capacity.
• Several carriers have increased fuel surcharges to offset rising operational costs linked to jet fuel volatility.
• Cargo backlogs continue at major Indian export hubs, particularly for westbound shipments. Some ocean shipments are being diverted to air freight, adding pressure to already constrained capacity.
• Freight rates have increased, with many shipments now quoted on a spot basis depending on space availability.

Ocean Freight

• Maritime security concerns remain elevated around key shipping corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb.
• Port operations remain uneven across the region. While Khorfakkan Port (Gulf of Oman) remains operational, several other ports in the Middle East continue to face operational disruptions due to the current security environment.
• Vessel schedules remain impacted, with delays, port omissions, and extended transit times reported across multiple services.
• Shipping lines are implementing Emergency War Surcharges (EWS) and other contingency surcharges on cargo moving to and from the region.

Outlook
While some stabilisation is beginning to emerge in air operations, capacity constraints and schedule unreliability are expected to persist in the near term. Shippers should anticipate longer transit times, limited space availability, and continued rate volatility across both air and ocean freight.

Customers are advised to plan shipments with extended lead times and reconfirm freight rates and capacity availability prior to booking.

Navigating Market Volatility
Periods of geopolitical tension and energy market disruption often create ripple effects across global logistics networks. As aviation fuel costs fluctuate and operational constraints affect both air and ocean freight services, supply chains may experience temporary shifts in capacity, pricing, and transit reliability.

In such environments, close coordination between shippers, logistics partners, and carriers becomes increasingly important. Monitoring market developments, maintaining flexibility in routing strategies, and planning shipments with appropriate lead times can help mitigate potential disruptions.

Logfret will continue to monitor operational conditions and market developments closely, supporting customers with updated market insights and reliable routing solutions as the situation evolves.