Source: Supply Chain Dive
Date: 22nd April 2026 

Rising fuel costs and supply uncertainty drive pricing pressure despite stable cargo volumes.

Ocean freight contract negotiations are facing increasing complexity as carriers introduce new surcharges linked to rising fuel costs and ongoing market uncertainty. The situation is being driven largely by disruptions to global energy flows, which are pushing up operating expenses across shipping networks.

The impact of the Strait of Hormuz remains central, as instability around this key trade route has tightened oil supply and elevated fuel prices. With approximately 20% of global oil shipments passing through this corridor, disruptions have had a direct effect on bunker costs, forcing carriers to adjust pricing structures.

As a result, carriers are increasingly implementing fuel surcharges, war risk premiums, and emergency cost adjustments, which are now becoming a major point of contention in annual contract discussions. Shippers are pushing back on these additional charges, particularly where direct operational impact on specific trade lanes is less visible, leading to prolonged and more complex negotiations.

Despite these pricing pressures, overall container volumes, particularly at major U.S. ports, have not yet shown significant disruption. However, the uncertainty surrounding costs and supply chain stability is influencing how contracts are structured, with greater emphasis on flexibility, clauses for exceptional events, and shorter validity periods.

At the same time, broader market fundamentals remain unchanged. Overcapacity in global fleets continues to limit carriers’ ability to sustain aggressive rate increases, even as cost pressures rise. This creates a disconnect between rising operational costs and relatively soft demand, complicating pricing strategies across the market.

The evolving surcharge environment is expected to have direct implications across supply chains. Shippers face increased contract complexity and cost volatility due to multiple surcharge layers. Importers may encounter higher landed costs, even in a relatively soft demand environment. Exporters could benefit from available capacity but must navigate fluctuating pricing structures.

What does it mean?

• Shift to Flexible Contracts: Annual agreements are increasingly incorporating surcharge clauses and renegotiation triggers
• Cost Transparency Pressure: Shippers are demanding clearer justification for surcharges tied to fuel and geopolitical risks
• Routing & Risk Premiums: Alternative routes and insurance costs are becoming embedded in pricing discussions
• Margin Compression Risk: Carriers balance rising costs with limited ability to push through full increases due to overcapacity

This environment reinforces the need for real-time cost visibility, dynamic pricing strategies, and proactive contract management to navigate ongoing volatility.