Source: Supply Chain Dive
Date: 12th November 2025

Frontloading ahead of tariff deadlines has kept 2025 throughput near record levels, but forecasts suggest softer imports heading into 2026.

The Port of Long Beach has sustained strong cargo momentum in 2025, defying tariff-related uncertainty and maintaining one of its best-performing years on record. Through October, the port handled 8.2 million TEUs, a 4.1% increase over the same period in 2024, which was already the busiest year in its history. Executives project that total throughput will finish the year at or near last year’s record of 9.6 million TEUs. Operations have remained smooth, with no significant congestion, demonstrating the port’s strengthened efficiency despite ongoing global trade instability.

A major factor behind these high volumes is shipper frontloading. Importers accelerated cargo arrivals throughout the year to avoid impending tariff increases, creating several “artificial peaks” in January and July that aligned with key tariff policy milestones. This strategic timing helped maintain elevated throughput but also pulled much of the typical Q4 demand forward, reducing the volume expected for the final weeks of the year.

Retailers benefited from this early surge, using frontloaded goods to keep shelves stocked and limit inflationary pressure during the peak shopping season. However, industry groups now forecast a modest decline in overall cargo for 2025 as the frontloading effect fades. The National Retail Federation expects softer import volumes, which, combined with tariff uncertainty, makes market forecasting increasingly difficult as companies reassess sourcing and inventory strategies.

Looking into 2026, the port anticipates moderate cargo growth despite expectations that consumers will begin feeling more of the cost impact from tariffs. A recent U.S.–China consensus agreement could ease some pricing pressure and support steadier trade flows, but longer-term questions remain about whether shifting manufacturing patterns will redirect cargo away from China and toward Southeast Asia.

For shippers, the uneven volume pattern created by frontloading has meant irregular vessel schedules, fluctuating equipment availability, and complexities in warehouse and drayage planning. The surges early in the year, followed by quieter months, have raised operational costs and required more dynamic cargo flow management.

For importers, early shipping helped avoid higher tariffs and ensured product availability ahead of the holidays, but it also tied up working capital and increased storage needs. With tariff conditions still volatile, importers are preparing for potential cost increases in 2026, which may impact pricing and consumer demand.

For exporters, the strong inbound flow has helped maintain vessel frequency and operational stability, but outbound cargo continues to face equipment shortages and scheduling challenges as carriers prioritise Asia-bound imports. Tariff uncertainty also affects export competitiveness, especially for sensitive product categories such as agriculture and manufactured goods.

Overall, while 2025 has been resilient for the Port of Long Beach, all stakeholders, shippers, importers, and exporters must navigate a delicate landscape shaped by tariffs, frontloading dynamics, and shifting global production patterns. Strategic planning, diversified sourcing, and flexible logistics models will be essential heading into 2026.