Source: Splash247
Date: 19th November 2025

Rising transits hint at a gradual return to pre-crisis shipping patterns, fuelled by reduced security risks and renewed confidence among global carriers.

After nearly two years of disruption across the Red Sea corridor, the latest vessel-traffic data indicates the first meaningful signs of recovery in Suez Canal transits. According to maritime analytics, weekly crossings reached an average of 244 vessels in October and 269 in November, an improvement from the 229-vessel weekly average seen during the first nine months of 2025. Although still far below the pre-crisis benchmark of nearly 500 weekly transits, the upward trend signals renewed stability.

This gradual recovery follows a formal announcement by the Houthis movement that maritime attacks have been paused in light of the recent ceasefire in the Israel–Hamas conflict. The declaration comes two years after the hijacking of a commercial vessel that triggered the Red Sea crisis and led many carriers to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. With security risks temporarily reduced, Egyptian authorities are encouraging shipping lines to resume transit through Bab El-Mandab and the Suez Canal.

The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) has already stepped up outreach, hosting discussions with major global carriers to facilitate their return. Some operators are reportedly on the verge of resuming Red Sea transits. Canal tolls historically contribute 1.5–2% of Egypt’s GDP, and before the crisis, annual revenue exceeded USD 8.5 billion. As traffic plummeted due to diversions, toll income dropped by more than half, making the canal’s recovery a national priority.

Market projections suggest that, if stability continues, a broader return to Suez routings may occur in the first half of 2026. Analysts note that the diversions around the Cape of Good Hope tightened global vessel supply significantly: containership availability contracted by 10–11%, while tanker, LNG, LPG, and dry bulk capacity also saw measurable reductions. Restoring Suez operations would help rebalance capacity and reduce the pressure on global schedules.

A sustained return to the Suez Canal will therefore not only benefit Egypt’s economy but also support improved fluidity, predictability, and cost efficiency for global trade between Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.

A gradual shift back to Suez routings will help reduce the longer sailing times that have challenged supply chains over the past two years. Shippers can expect improved schedule reliability, smoother equipment repositioning, and greater planning accuracy for both full-container and consolidation cargoes. As operating conditions stabilise, surcharges related to Red Sea diversions may ease, supporting more competitive freight rates.

Shorter transit times will enhance supply chain efficiency for importers reliant on Asia–Europe and Asia–MENA trade flows. With carriers restoring normal routes, importers may reduce safety stock, strengthen inventory turnover, and benefit from lower war-risk and rerouting premiums. Better vessel capacity and fewer delays will also help avoid rolled cargo and last-minute cost escalations.

Exporters across Asia, the Middle East, and Europe will see improved time-to-market when the Suez corridor fully reopens. Increased sailing frequency, more predictable windows, and restored service patterns will enhance customer service levels abroad. As detours disappear, global vessel capacity will normalise, making it easier for exporters to secure bookings without facing prolonged waiting times or elevated peak-season surcharges.