Source: Supply Chain Dive
Date: 17th June 2025

Truckload carriers continue to face a downward trend in demand, driven by the impact of tariffs, softer consumer spending, and manufacturing weakness.

Market analysts estimate that a 1% tariff hike could shrink truckload demand by 0.15%, while increases in the range of 18% to 28% may lead to a 4% to 6% drop.

Rising prices are discouraging consumer purchases, ultimately reducing the volume of goods transported by trucks. At key hubs like the Port of Los Angeles, this trend is already visible, with May cargo volumes down 5% year over year and 19% lower than April.

Demand softening is compounded by seasonal delays and oversupply in specific sectors, such as temperature-controlled (reefer) freight.

For the second consecutive year, reefer carriers face a soft market, with late produce harvests and reduced volumes pushing spot rates below 2023 levels.

Across the broader truckload segment, freight tonnage fell for the second straight month in April, highlighting the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand. Experts describe the overall market as flat and underwhelming compared to historical norms.

Manufacturing, a key driver of domestic freight, is also showing signs of contraction.

The latest data from the Purchasing Manager’s Index indicates a three-month decline, with backlogs and new orders hitting their lowest points since 2009.

As imports stall and factory orders dwindle, truckload carriers are left with fewer goods to move. With the second quarter typically seen as a rebound period, the continued trade disruptions may prevent recovery.

If conditions persist, analysts warn that the freight recession that began in 2022 may extend further into 2025.