Source: Supply Chain Dive
Date: 3rd August 2026 

Geopolitical uncertainty, capacity constraints and AI-driven demand are expected to keep the global air freight market resilient despite a slowing economic outlook.

The global air cargo market is entering the second half of 2026 facing a complex operating environment where geopolitical events, constrained aircraft capacity and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence supply chains continue to influence freight demand and pricing.

While global economic growth is expected to moderate, air cargo demand has remained resilient throughout the first half of the year, supported by inventory replenishment, supply chain uncertainty and growing demand for high-value technology products.

Market data indicates that freight rates have continued to strengthen despite expectations earlier in the year that prices would soften.

According to Xeneta, spot air freight rates increased 22% year-on-year during the first six months of 2026, while combined spot and long-term contract rates rose 17%, and long-term contract rates increased 11%.

These figures reflect a market that continues to operate under tight capacity conditions while responding to shifting global trade patterns.

One of the key drivers has been continued geopolitical uncertainty. Disruptions affecting major maritime trade corridors have encouraged some businesses to shift time-sensitive cargo from ocean freight to air transport, while fluctuating fuel prices and network disruptions have added further volatility to freight markets.

At the same time, aircraft production continues to recover gradually, limiting the pace at which additional cargo capacity can enter the market. With widebody passenger aircraft carrying a substantial share of global air freight, slower fleet expansion continues to constrain available capacity despite steady demand growth.

Another major growth driver is the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure. High-value semiconductor components, AI servers and advanced computing equipment require fast, secure transportation, making air freight the preferred mode for many technology supply chains.

Although AI-related shipments represent only a relatively small share of total global air cargo volumes, they continue to generate disproportionately strong demand on major technology trade lanes, particularly across the Asia-Pacific region.

Looking ahead, freight demand may moderate if inventory levels remain elevated following earlier shipment acceleration. However, continuing geopolitical uncertainty and limited capacity are expected to provide ongoing support for freight rates during the remainder of the year.

The air cargo market is becoming increasingly influenced by structural rather than seasonal factors.

Instead of relying solely on traditional peak shipping seasons, demand is increasingly being shaped by geopolitical developments, technology investment cycles and supply chain resilience strategies. This creates a more dynamic market where capacity and pricing can change rapidly in response to global events.

Businesses moving high-value or time-sensitive products should therefore expect greater emphasis on capacity planning and transportation flexibility.

Air cargo demand is expected to remain relatively resilient through the remainder of 2026, although overall market growth may moderate alongside the global economy.

Capacity constraints, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and sustained investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure are likely to continue supporting freight rates, even if seasonal demand softens later in the year.

Market conditions are therefore expected to remain more balanced than previous forecasts suggested, with pricing supported by structural demand rather than short-term market fluctuations.

What This Means

• Expect freight rates to remain relatively firm while available capacity remains constrained.
• Secure air cargo capacity early for high-value or time-sensitive shipments.
• Monitor geopolitical developments that could influence both ocean and air freight markets.
• Review transportation strategies for technology and semiconductor shipments where demand remains strong.
• Maintain flexibility between air and ocean freight as market conditions continue to evolve.

The second half of 2026 is shaping up to be a period where resilience, rather than volume alone, defines the air cargo market. Geopolitical uncertainty, constrained aircraft availability and the continued expansion of AI-driven supply chains are reshaping freight demand beyond traditional seasonal cycles.

For businesses relying on air transport, success will increasingly depend on proactive planning, flexible logistics strategies and close collaboration with freight partners. Companies that secure capacity early, diversify transportation options and maintain visibility across their supply chains will be better positioned to manage costs and maintain service reliability in an evolving global market.