Source: Supply Chain Dive
Date: 7th January 2026

Pre-Lunar New Year cargo activity and carrier rate increases push Asia–US ocean prices sharply higher.

Transpacific ocean freight rates surged at the start of 2026, driven by seasonal cargo demand ahead of the Lunar New Year and coordinated rate increases by ocean carriers. Market data shows that spot rates from Asia to the United States rose sharply week over week, signalling renewed pricing pressure on one of the world’s most critical trade lanes.

Rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast climbed more than 20% within a single week, while services to the U.S. East Coast recorded double-digit increases. These movements extend a gradual upward trend that began in late December, reversing the relatively soft rate environment seen in the final quarter of 2025.

Despite the short-term spike, market analysts caution that overall Transpacific volumes are expected to remain lower year-on-year in 2026. Elevated inventories, following months of cargo front-loading to mitigate tariff risks, continue to weigh on import demand. Capacity growth is also expected to limit sustained upward pressure on freight rates later in the year.

Port authorities on the U.S. West Coast have echoed this outlook, projecting modest declines in import volumes compared with 2025 as retailers and manufacturers work through existing stock. While rates may remain volatile around key seasonal periods, structural demand remains subdued.

Separately, recent geopolitical events affecting a secondary container port in the Caribbean are not expected to materially impact global container flows. Cargo had already been diverted to alternative regional gateways, limiting wider disruption to international shipping networks.

Short-term cost pressure will intensify for exporters in Asia, shipping ahead of Lunar New Year cut-offs. Space availability may tighten temporarily, reinforcing the need for early bookings and flexible routing strategies.

U.S. importers face higher landed costs in early 2026, particularly for time-sensitive cargo. However, elevated inventories may reduce urgency, allowing some buyers to delay shipments until post-holiday rate normalisation.

Exporters may benefit from short-term pricing leverage but should prepare for softer demand later in the year. With volumes projected to decline year on year, rate volatility is likely to be driven more by carrier pricing tactics than underlying demand growth.