Source: Supply Chain Dive
Date: 27th January 2026 

Post-holiday slowdown and earlier cargo frontloading are set to weigh on U.S. ocean imports through spring.

U.S. port activity is expected to remain subdued in the first half of the year following an unusually strong 2025, driven by tariff-related frontloading and peak-season demand. According to a recent port tracker report by a national retail industry body and a global supply chain consultancy, monthly import volumes are projected to decline year over year until May, when a modest recovery is forecast.

While January is expected to see a short-term increase in volumes due to Lunar New Year shipping activity, overall throughput is still projected to fall compared with the same period last year. Subsequent months are forecast to continue the year-on-year decline, reflecting a typical post-holiday shipping lull and the impact of earlier inventory builds by retailers.

Retailers are now reassessing demand patterns and inventory positions following months of accelerated imports. Trade policy uncertainty and tariff concerns remain key factors shaping sourcing behaviour, with many companies having brought forward shipments to avoid potential cost increases. This frontloading has left distribution networks temporarily saturated, reducing the need for near-term replenishment.

Despite the expected softening, major West Coast ports recorded historically strong results in 2025. One leading gateway reported one of its best years on record and outlined further infrastructure investment to support future volumes, while a neighbouring port achieved an all-time container throughput record, largely driven by shipper efforts to move cargo ahead of potential tariffs.

Overall, while the short-term outlook suggests muted activity, the structural importance of U.S. ports remains strong. The projected slowdown reflects inventory normalisation rather than a contraction in trade demand, with volumes expected to stabilise as supply chains recalibrate.

Shippers may benefit from improved vessel space availability and potentially softer spot rates in the short term. However, reduced volumes could also prompt carriers to blank sailings or adjust service frequencies, increasing schedule volatility.

Importers are likely to experience fewer capacity constraints but may need to manage excess inventory from earlier frontloading. This may reduce near-term purchasing activity and shift focus toward inventory optimisation and demand alignment.

Exporters may see improved access to port infrastructure and equipment availability as inbound congestion eases. However, service rationalisation by carriers could affect sailing options and transit time reliability.