Source: Supply Chain Dive
Date: 9th October 2025

Frontloading activity slows after tariff-driven surge, leading to softer Transpacific and Transatlantic market performance.

Seasonal air cargo patterns were disrupted in September as U.S. tariff policies reshaped global trade flows. Following several months of frontloading shipments to avoid higher import duties, demand growth eased by 3% year over year, according to recent industry data. The slowdown led to weaker performance across major trade corridors, particularly on Transpacific and Transatlantic routes. Spot rates declined for the fifth consecutive month, averaging $2.54 per kilogram, a 4% drop from the previous year, while overall airfreight activity showed signs of stabilising after months of volatility.

Despite a shift in sourcing from China toward Southeast Asia, rate reductions continued across the region. Spot rates from Southeast Asia to North America dropped 22% year over year, while rates from Northeast Asia fell 13%. The end of the summer season also reduced passenger belly capacity on Transatlantic routes, tightening available space but failing to spur a sustained rate recovery. Analysts noted that recent improvements in stability are driven more by reduced capacity than by a rebound in demand, signalling a cooling phase for air cargo markets after prolonged uncertainty.

Tariff-driven volatility has also begun to reshape contract behaviour. The share of six-month freight contracts rose notably in the third quarter as companies sought flexibility ahead of an uncertain peak season. Long-term agreements declined, reflecting cautious optimism and limited confidence in the long-range rate outlook. While near-term performance remains subdued, projections suggest a moderate recovery ahead, with global air cargo demand expected to grow by 3% to 4% by the end of 2025 as markets adapt to evolving trade dynamics and stabilised tariff conditions.

For shippers, importers, and exporters, the recent air cargo slowdown underscores the importance of proactive logistics planning amid fluctuating tariffs and freight costs. Importers may face challenges in balancing inventory levels and transport budgets as frontloading activity declines, while exporters encounter reduced capacity and unpredictable rate structures on key trade lanes. Shippers are advised to diversify routing strategies, secure shorter-term contracts, and strengthen visibility across their supply chains to mitigate risks tied to tariff-driven disruptions.