Source: Supply & Demand Chain Executive
Date: 5th August 2026 

Shippers are paying more to move goods even as freight volumes decline, highlighting how tightening capacity is changing U.S. transportation market dynamics.

U.S. shippers faced significantly higher transportation spending during the second quarter of 2026, despite another decline in freight volumes, signalling a shift in trucking market conditions as available capacity tightens.

According to the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, national shipment volumes declined 1.1% from the first quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter-on-quarter decrease. Compared with the same period last year, shipment volumes were 2.8% lower.

Transportation spending moved sharply in the opposite direction. Shipper spending increased 6.4% quarter on quarter and was 28.1% higher year on year, illustrating how transportation costs can rise even when underlying freight demand remains relatively soft.

The divergence between shipment volumes and spending suggests that available trucking capacity is playing an increasingly important role in determining freight costs. As capacity becomes tighter, shippers may face greater pricing pressure despite moving fewer shipments.

Regional Differences Highlight an Uneven Market. The second-quarter figures also reveal significant differences across U.S. regions.

The Southeast recorded the strongest sequential increase in shipment volumes at 0.9%, followed by the West at 0.5%, while the Northeast remained unchanged.

By comparison, shipment volumes declined 3.7% in the Midwest and 0.6% in the Southwest.

Spending trends were considerably stronger. Transportation spending increased quarter on quarter in every region except the Midwest, including:

• West: +12%
• Southwest: +11.2%
• Southeast: +10%

On a year-on-year basis, all five regions recorded substantial increases in shipper spending, ranging from 22.9% in the Midwest to nearly 40% in the Southwest.

The Southwest therefore shows one of the clearest examples of the changing market: shipment volumes declined while transportation spending increased sharply.

The latest figures demonstrate that freight demand alone does not determine transportation costs.

Even in a relatively soft demand environment, reductions in available trucking capacity can tighten the market and place upward pressure on rates. This creates a more challenging planning environment for manufacturers, retailers, and importers that may have expected weaker freight volumes to translate into lower transportation costs.

Regional differences also mean that businesses operating nationwide may experience significantly different capacity and pricing conditions depending on where cargo originates or is delivered.

If trucking capacity continues to tighten while freight demand stabilises or begins to recover, upward pressure on transportation costs could become more pronounced.

The key question for the remainder of 2026 will therefore be whether available capacity can keep pace with freight demand. Even a moderate recovery in shipment volumes could create additional pressure if the trucking market has already lost sufficient capacity.

Shippers should consequently monitor both freight demand and capacity conditions when preparing transportation budgets and procurement strategies.

What This Means

• Do not assume softer freight volumes will automatically result in lower trucking rates.
• Monitor regional capacity conditions, particularly where spending is rising despite weaker shipment activity.
• Review transportation budgets to account for potential rate increases during the second half of 2026.
• Secure capacity earlier for critical or time-sensitive shipments where possible.
• Maintain flexibility across carriers, routes and transportation options as regional conditions change.

The growing gap between shipment volumes and transportation spending highlights an important shift in the U.S. trucking market. Capacity, rather than demand alone, is increasingly influencing freight costs.

For shippers, this reinforces the importance of looking beyond headline freight volumes when planning transportation strategies. Regional capacity availability, routing flexibility, and planning will become increasingly important if the market continues to tighten.

Businesses that maintain visibility over transportation conditions and secure reliable capacity before demand strengthens will be better positioned to manage costs and maintain service levels through the remainder of 2026.